Posterior estimation of variables in water distribution networks

ABSTRACT

A system for posterior estimation of variables. Receiving a set of data inputs. Determining a first model of the water distribution network based on the set of data inputs. Determining a second model of the water distribution network based on the set of data inputs, and the first model.

FIELD OF THE INVENTION

The present invention relates generally to the field of processing, andmore particularly to prediction of fluid flow within water distributionnetworks.

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION

In the context of water distribution networks accurate data is criticalin predicting future demand, planning emergency scenario simulations,optimization and system modeling. Given the complexity of waterdistribution networks, any changes or malfunctions within the systemwill inevitably affect fluid distribution and the supply within.

In order to properly predict and monitor such variables, it may benecessary to create mathematical prediction models of the networkincorporating such changes. Available models' accuracy may be greatlyaffected by unknown system parameters such as change in pipe roughnessaffecting flow, addition of equipment, or presence of anomalies likeleakage.

To this end, once the model is created, it is necessary to utilize knowndata to ensure such predictions are reliable. A limitation of suchmodeling procedures is that they approximate the unknown parametersusing a short-term sample of hydraulic data, or are limited byinsufficient amount of data from a few measuring points which mayunderrepresent a large size system. Such modeling may create resultsrepresenting the system hydraulics during the short period of themeasuring time but are not expected to accurately represent the systemconditions depicting full range of operational conditions and anomalieswithin. Consequently, any such model may suffer from an inadequatecalibration, throwing into question the results after a significantchange in the system. Even a series of minor modifications to thesystem, the model will incrementally depart from that of the originalmodeling prediction. Thus, even if the calibration is representative ofthe medium or long-term performance of the system, natural or deliberatechanges to the system parameters will introduce further errors into themodel.

Accordingly, as time passes the value and effectiveness of the modeldiminishes. To highlight the effect of time on the accuracy of themodel, it will be appreciated that such changes need not be restrictedto infrastructure change, but also to deterioration of the network overtime and even changes in demand following re-zoning, industrialdevelopment and demographic change. The investment of resources, both interms of time and money, required to generate new models is substantialand inefficient.

A technique for modeling and simulating water distribution andcollection systems that includes estimation of future and unknownparameters is greatly desired. Such estimation technique must be morerobust and flexible than the existing techniques, to permit modelestimation and simulation under more challenging scenarios that priortechniques have not been able to adequately address.

SUMMARY

Embodiments of the present invention disclose a method, computer programproduct, and system for posterior estimation of variables in waterdistribution networks. A computer receives a set of data inputs. Itdetermines a first model of the water distribution network based on theset of data inputs. Computer then determines a second model of the waterdistribution network based on the set of data inputs, and the firstmodel.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE SEVERAL VIEWS OF THE DRAWINGS

FIG. 1 is a schematic block diagram illustrating a posterior estimationof variables in a water distribution networks processing environment, inaccordance with an embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 2A is a block diagram illustrating posterior estimation data flow,in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 2B is a block diagram illustrating recursive posterior estimationdata flow, in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 3 is a flowchart depicting operational steps of a posteriorestimation module, in accordance with an embodiment of the presentinvention.

FIG. 4 is a block diagram of internal and external components within acomputing device of FIG. 1, in accordance with an embodiment of thepresent invention.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION

The present invention may be a system, a method, and/or a computerprogram product. The computer program product may include a computerreadable storage medium (or media) having computer readable programinstructions thereon for causing a processor to carry out aspects of thepresent invention.

The computer readable storage medium can be a tangible device that canretain and store instructions for use by an instruction executiondevice. The computer readable storage medium may be, for example, but isnot limited to, an electronic storage device, a magnetic storage device,an optical storage device, an electromagnetic storage device, asemiconductor storage device, or any suitable combination of theforegoing. A non-exhaustive list of more specific examples of thecomputer readable storage medium includes the following: a portablecomputer diskette, a hard disk, a random access memory (RAM), aread-only memory (ROM), an erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROMor Flash memory), a static random access memory (SRAM), a portablecompact disc read-only memory (CD-ROM), a digital versatile disk (DVD),a memory stick, a floppy disk, a mechanically encoded device such aspunch-cards or raised structures in a groove having instructionsrecorded thereon, and any suitable combination of the foregoing. Acomputer readable storage medium, as used herein, is not to be construedas being transitory signals per se, such as radio waves or other freelypropagating electromagnetic waves, electromagnetic waves propagatingthrough a waveguide or other transmission media (e.g., light pulsespassing through a fiber-optic cable), or electrical signals transmittedthrough a wire.

Computer readable program instructions described herein can bedownloaded to respective computing/processing devices from a computerreadable storage medium or to an external computer or external storagedevice via a network, for example, the Internet, a local area network, awide area network and/or a wireless network. The network may comprisecopper transmission cables, optical transmission fibers, wirelesstransmission, routers, firewalls, switches, gateway computers and/oredge servers. A network adapter card or network interface in eachcomputing/processing device receives computer readable programinstructions from the network and forwards the computer readable programinstructions for storage in a computer readable storage medium withinthe respective computing/processing device.

Computer readable program instructions for carrying out operations ofthe present invention may be assembler instructions,instruction-set-architecture (ISA) instructions, machine instructions,machine dependent instructions, microcode, firmware instructions,state-setting data, or either source code or object code written in anycombination of one or more programming languages, including an objectoriented programming language such as Smalltalk, C++ or the like, andconventional procedural programming languages, such as the “C”programming language or similar programming languages. The computerreadable program instructions may execute entirely on the user'scomputer, partly on the user's computer, as a stand-alone softwarepackage, partly on the user's computer and partly on a remote computeror entirely on the remote computer or server. In the latter scenario,the remote computer may be connected to the user's computer through anytype of network, including a local area network (LAN) or a wide areanetwork (WAN), or the connection may be made to an external computer(for example, through the Internet using an Internet Service Provider).In some embodiments, electronic circuitry including, for example,programmable logic circuitry, field-programmable gate arrays (FPGA), orprogrammable logic arrays (PLA) may execute the computer readableprogram instructions by utilizing state information of the computerreadable program instructions to personalize the electronic circuitry,in order to perform aspects of the present invention.

Aspects of the present invention are described herein with reference toflowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams of methods, apparatus(systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of theinvention. It will be understood that each block of the flowchartillustrations and/or block diagrams, and combinations of blocks in theflowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams, can be implemented bycomputer readable program instructions.

These computer readable program instructions may be provided to aprocessor of a general purpose computer, special purpose computer, orother programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, suchthat the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computeror other programmable data processing apparatus, create means forimplementing the functions/acts specified in the flowchart and/or blockdiagram block or blocks. These computer readable program instructionsmay also be stored in a computer readable storage medium that can directa computer, a programmable data processing apparatus, and/or otherdevices to function in a particular manner, such that the computerreadable storage medium having instructions stored therein comprises anarticle of manufacture including instructions which implement aspects ofthe function/act specified in the flowchart and/or block diagram blockor blocks.

The computer readable program instructions may also be loaded onto acomputer, other programmable data processing apparatus, or other deviceto cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer,other programmable apparatus or other device to produce a computerimplemented process, such that the instructions which execute on thecomputer, other programmable apparatus, or other device implement thefunctions/acts specified in the flowchart and/or block diagram block orblocks.

The flowchart and block diagrams in the figures illustrate thearchitecture, functionality, and operation of possible implementationsof systems, methods, and computer program products according to variousembodiments of the present invention. In this regard, each block in theflowchart or block diagrams may represent a module, segment, or portionof instructions, which comprises one or more executable instructions forimplementing the specified logical function(s). In some alternativeimplementations, the functions noted in the block may occur out of theorder noted in the figures. For example, two blocks shown in successionmay in fact be executed substantially concurrently, or the blocks maysometimes be executed in the reverse order, depending upon thefunctionality involved. It will also be noted that each block of theblock diagrams and/or flowchart illustration, and combinations of blocksin the block diagrams and/or flowchart illustration, can be implementedby special purpose hardware-based systems that perform the specifiedfunctions or acts or carry out combinations of special purpose hardwareand computer instructions.

FIG. 1 is a schematic block diagram illustrating a posterior estimationof variables in a water distribution processing environment, inaccordance with an embodiment of the present invention. Waterdistribution system 199 may be divided into a parameter element 10 and adistribution system 50. Parameter element 10 may include transmissionpumps 12, output pressure 13, and reservoirs 11. The distribution system50 acts to deliver water to the various end customers through a branchedpiping arrangement having an infrastructure including, distributionnodes 51, branched pipe network sections 53, and flow control valves 54at changing elevation 52.

Model data from various elements within the distribution system 50 andparameter element 10 may be utilized for estimation of variables in thewater distribution system 199. In an exemplary embodiment of theinvention, such model data may be represented as design parameters,which reflect known system characteristics and elements. For example,design parameters may include the distribution pump rating and itsdesign output pressure, or the number of branches or branch connectionswithin a particular water distribution system and the flow calculationsfor each branch. Other data may include actual or estimated statisticaldemand values for branches and nodes within the system. Demand valuesmay encompass water flow or usage by zones or distribution nodes 51, orchanges in elevation 52 within the system. Such modeling data may bestored and accessed within computing device 100, in accordance with theembodiments of the present invention.

Similarly, field measurement data may also be collected from sensorspresent within water distribution system 199. Such data may includemeasurements from within the distribution system 50 such as actual flowthrough branched pipe network section 53, or water levels in holdingtank 55. Data origination from the parameter element 10 of the waterdistribution system 199 may also be communicated to a computing device100 through a variety of sensors typically found in water distributionsystems. This data may include water levels of reservoir 11, number oftransmission pumps 12 currently in operation, or their output pressure13 as compared to metering device 56.

It is important to note that although FIG. 1 depicts sensorscommunicating field measurement data to computing device 100, such datamay be collected by operating personnel and be manually inputted intocomputing device 100. Collectively, using the data from a demand system50, parameter characteristics 10, and field measurement data computingdevice 100 may generate a posterior estimation model of existingvariables within water distribution system 199.

FIG. 2A depicts a block diagram illustrating data flow through posteriorestimation module 200, in accordance with an embodiment of the presentinvention. A posterior estimation module 200 located on computing device100 (FIG. 1), receives network parameter data 210. As will be wellunderstood by those skilled in the art, the hydraulic behavior of thenetwork will depend on the parameters of the elements comprising thewater distribution network. For example, network elevations, pipediameter, pipe roughness coefficient, and pipe length may be considerednetwork parameter data in accordance with the embodiment of thisinvention.

Upon receiving network parameter data 210, and a measure of uncertaintyinformation, which may be represented as a standard deviation of theinput, posterior estimation module 200 may calculate the statisticaldistribution of the parameters. In an exemplary embodiment of thepresent invention, posterior estimation module 200 may calculatestatistical distribution by assuming that the distribution is Gaussianand includes the mean and standard deviation parameters given as input.As an example, posterior estimation module 200 statistical distributioncalculation may be represented as:

${f(x)} = {\frac{1}{\sigma\sqrt{2\pi}}e^{- \frac{{({x - \mu})}^{2}}{2\sigma^{2}}}}$

Such parameters may represent the maximum and minimum pump dischargepressures obtained from previously collected design parameters. Standarddeviation for each parameter may indicate the amount of variation ordispersion from the mean value. This information can include, but is notlimited to, certainty/uncertainty information about pipe parameters(roughness, diameter), nodes demand, valve operational status, etc. Theuncertainty information can be expressed as a typical value interval(e.g., the pipe diameter belongs to the interval 9-12 inches) or as meanand standard deviation (e.g., the pipe diameter is 9±2 inches). It isimportant to note that although the exemplary embodiment of theinvention demonstrates specific modules and calculation methods ofstatistical distribution, it would be well understood by those skilledin the art that such calculation may be performed outside of theposterior estimation module 200, or through varied statisticaldistributions. Standard deviation for each demand may indicate theamount of variation or dispersion from the mean value.

The posterior estimation module 200 through sensor recording or manualinput receives field measurement data 230. In reference to FIG. 1, fieldmeasurement data 230 may comprise information sent to computing device100 from reservoir 11, transmission pumps 12, output pressure 13,metering device 56, or flow control valve 54. Alternatively, the sensorsemployed can be configured to, for example transmits the fieldmeasurement data 230 through a wired or wireless connectionautomatically transmitting the data. As previously discussed, the fieldmeasurement data 200 collected may include, for example, hydraulic datasuch as pressures and flows at one or more nodes of the network. In anexemplary embodiment of the present invention, statistical distributionof field measurement data 230 may be calculated through mean andstandard deviation of each value.

The posterior estimation module 200, the operation of which is describedin more detail below in relation to FIG. 3, utilizes the statisticaldistribution of data collected from water distribution system 199 toperform a joint posterior estimation of received network demand data andnetwork parameter data as compared to available field measurement data230.

The posterior estimation values 240 are calculated by the posteriorestimation module 200 and may be displayed within display screen, inaccordance with the embodiments of the present invention.

FIG. 2B depicts a block diagram illustrating data flow through posteriorestimation module 200, in accordance with an embodiment of the presentinvention. According to the embodiment described in FIG. 2A, posteriorestimation module 200 receives and calculates a joint posteriorestimation of received network demand data 220 and network parameterdata 210 utilizing available field measurement data 230. In addition,the posterior estimation module 200, the operation of which is describedin more detail below in relation to FIG. 3, utilizes the statisticaldistribution of data collected from water distribution system 199 toperform a joint posterior estimation of received network demand data 220and network parameter data 210 through recursive estimation 250.Recursive estimation allows the posterior estimation module 200 to adoptto any near real time changes within the water distribution system bycyclically recalculating of posterior network estimates by utilizingprior distribution inputs for the current calculation and increases thequality of the model.

Recursive estimation 250, the operation of which is described in moredetail below in relation to FIG. 3, allows for a iterative recalculationof posterior network demand data and network parameter data, where ateach step the posterior estimates become prior distribution inputs forfuture estimation as new measurements are received and increases thequality of the model. It is important to note that the recursiveestimation 250 may be applied in a dynamic setting where the data iscontinuously streamed to the posterior estimation module 200 at apredetermined sampling time, or it may also be applied through anoffline setting where the final estimation, at the last sampling point,produces the final estimate of the demand and parameters. The finalizedposterior estimation values 240 may be displayed within display screen,in accordance with the embodiments of the present invention.

In additional embodiments, the posterior estimation module 200 may alsoprovide an anomaly check of the water distribution system. Such anomalycheck may serve to indicate to operating personnel that a piece ofequipment is malfunctioning, or the system contains a leak. Posteriorestimation module 200 can accomplish this by utilizing the previouslyestimated posterior parameter values, where such estimated values can becompared against manufacturers' specification for specific equipment, orsystem design data. As an example, posterior estimation module 200 mayextract minimum and maximum values of parameters from already calculateddistribution based on percentage representing the likelihood of anomaly.Utilizing Gaussian distribution minimum and maximum ranges may berepresented as [μ−3σ,μ+3σ] where μ represents the mean and σ thestandard deviation. Posterior estimation module 200 may determine theprobability that the values fall within the ranges and determine thepercentile of likely anomaly.

FIG. 3 is a flowchart depicting operational steps of the posteriorestimation module 200, in accordance with an embodiment of the presentinvention.

Posterior estimation module 200 receives input of parameters (step 300).The parameters may include, in one embodiment, data relating to piperoughness, pipe length, locations of valves, or pump settings within thewater distribution system 199.

Posterior estimation module 200 receives network demand data and networkparameter data (step 305). The network demand data and network parameterdata received may include an individual distribution node consumption,demand junction, or reservoir and tank levels of water distributionsystem 199.

Posterior estimation module 200 also receives performance data fromreservoir 11, transmission pumps 12, output pressure 13, metering device56, or flow control valve 54 located within water distribution system199 (step 310). The performance data may include existing sensormeasurements such as flow data, valve positions, or pressure readingsspanning a given time window.

Posterior estimation module 200 may generate an initial statisticaldistribution of the network parameter data (step 315). In oneembodiment, the statistical distribution may encompass calculating amean and standard deviation of each parameter, where the initialstatistical distribution of such parameters may be denoted a ϑ⁰, inaccordance with an embodiment of the present invention. The initialstatistical distribution of each parameter with a measure of uncertaintyinformation, may be represented as:ϑ⁰ ˜N(μ_(ϑ) ⁰,Σ_(ϑ) ⁰)where N denotes a Gaussian distribution, μ_(ϑ) ⁰ the mean value of theparameters, and Σ_(ϑ) ⁰ the covariance matrix of the parameter values.

Posterior estimation module 200 may also calculate an initialstatistical distribution of the network demand data (step 320). In oneembodiment, the statistical distribution may encompass calculating amean and standard deviation of each demand and a measure of uncertaintyinformation, where the initial statistical distribution of suchparameters may be denoted as d⁰, in accordance with an embodiment of thepresent invention. The initial statistical distribution of the networkdemand data with the measure of uncertainty information, may berepresented as:d ⁰ ˜N(μ_(d) ⁰,Σ_(d) ⁰)where N denotes a Gaussian distribution, μ_(d) ⁰ the mean value of thedemand values and Σ_(d) ⁰ the covariance matrix of the parameter values.

For the purpose of simplicity, ϑ⁰ hereinafter will be referred to asprior statistical distribution of the parameters, and d⁰ hereinafterwill be referred to as prior statistical distribution of the networkdemand data.

The statistical distribution of available field measurements iscalculated by posterior estimation module 200, in accordance with theembodiments of the invention (step 325). In one embodiment, thestatistical distribution may encompass calculating a mean and standarddeviation of each field measurement, where the initial statisticaldistribution of such measurements may be denoted as y. The statisticaldistribution of field measurements with a measure of uncertaintyinformation may also be utilized to determine the reliability of thefield measurements when compared to sensor settings and specificationswithin water distribution system 199. In different embodiments, thefield measurements and a measure of uncertainty information can coverone time measurement, multiple temporal windows, or be dynamicallystreamed at a chosen sampling interval.

In an exemplary embodiment of the invention the field measurements ofhydraulic quantities y may be used, at a time t, and represented as:y ^(t) ˜N(μ_(y) ^(t),Σ_(y) ^(t))where μ_(y) ^(t) represents the mean values of the field measurementsand Σ_(y) ^(t) the covariance matrix of the field measurement values.

Utilizing prior statistical distribution of the network demand data,network parameter data and a set of field measurements at a specifictime instant y^(t), posterior estimation system 200 calculates theestimation of posterior network demand data and network parameter databy minimizing the weighted summed squared error between the initialmodel prediction and the given field measurements while adding aweighted summed squared error between the estimated network demand dataand network parameter data and prior statistical distribution of thenetwork demand data and network parameter data (step 330). This can berepresented mathematically as the following:

${\min\limits_{\vartheta,d}{J\left( {\vartheta,d} \right)}} = {{\left\lbrack {\mu_{y}^{t} - {f\left( {d,\vartheta} \right)}} \right\rbrack^{T}{\underset{y}{\sum\limits^{t - 1}}\left\lbrack {\mu_{y}^{t} - {f\left( {d,\vartheta} \right)}} \right\rbrack}} + {\left( {\mu_{\vartheta}^{0} - \vartheta} \right)^{- 1}{\underset{y}{\sum\limits^{0 - 1}}\left( {\mu_{\vartheta}^{0} - \vartheta} \right)}} + {\left( {\mu_{d}^{0} - d} \right)^{T}{\underset{d}{\sum\limits^{0 - 1}}\left( {\mu_{d}^{0} - d} \right)}}}$where the sum of the squared errors is weighted by the inverse of thestandard deviations squared. Utilizing this method, prior statisticaldistribution of the network demand data and network parameter data, andfield measurements at y, posterior estimation module 200 produces themaximum posterior estimation of the network parameter data {circumflexover (ϑ)} and network demand data {circumflex over (d)}. It should benoted that it would be well understood by those skilled in the art thatthere are additional methods of calculating posterior estimation andother functions could be utilized.

Posterior estimation module 200 may group any unknown network demanddata and network parameter data as a variable (step 335). Such variablemay be represented as x=[d^(T)ϑ^(T)]^(T) such that:x·N(μ_(x),Σ_(x))μ_(x)=[μ_(d)μ_(ϑ)]^(T)where a matrix can be constructed based on the Σ_(x)={Σ_(d),Σ_(d),Σ_(ϑ)}.

Posterior estimation module 200 may then solve for the variables with analgorithm based on a preferential convergence criteria, in accordancewith the embodiment of the present invention (step 340). In oneexemplary embodiment of the invention, posterior estimation module 200may utilize an algorithm where F_(k) denotes the gradient of thefunction ƒ(x), with respect to variable x and calculated at point{circumflex over (x)}_(k) (F_(k)=∇ƒ(x)|_({circumflex over (x)}k)). Thealgorithm to solve for unknown network demand data and network parameterdata may be written as:{circumflex over (x)} _(k+1) ={circumflex over (x)} _(k)+[F _(k)^(T)Σ_(y) ^(t−1) F _(k)+Σ_(x) ⁰⁻¹]⁻¹ F _(k) ^(T)Σ_(y)^(t−1)[μ_(y)−ƒ({circumflex over (x)} _(k))]+[F _(k) ^(T)Σ_(y) ^(t−1) F_(k)+Σ_(x) ⁰⁻¹]⁻¹Σ_(x) ⁰⁻¹(μ_(x) ⁰ −{circumflex over (x)} _(k))where posterior estimate of the network demand data and networkparameter data may be a Gaussian variable represented by:{circumflex over (x)}˜N({circumflex over (μ)}_(x),{circumflex over(Σ)}_(x)){circumflex over (μ)}_(x) ={circumflex over (x)} _(L){circumflex over (Σ)}_(x)=[F _(L) ^(T)Σ_(y) ^(t|−1) F _(L)+Σ_(x) ⁰⁻¹]⁻¹where from estimate {circumflex over (x)} posterior estimation module200 can derive a new distribution of {circumflex over (ϑ)}^(t) and{circumflex over (d)}^(t) (super script t denotes that the newdistribution was calculated utilizing prior statistical distribution ofthe network demand data and network parameter data with fieldmeasurement at a time frame t) (step 345).

In another embodiment of the invention, the posterior estimation module200 may conduct a recursive estimation of posterior network demand dataand network parameter data. In such implementation, posterior estimationmodule 200 may conduct continuous calculations improving the quality andreliability of the statistical data (step 350). Once the fieldmeasurements at t+1 are available, posterior estimation module 200 mayalter the previously discussed algorithm to reflect the estimateddistribution at time t. This can be mathematically represented asfollowing:

${\min\limits_{\vartheta,d}{J\left( {\vartheta,d} \right)}} = {{\left\lbrack {\mu_{y}^{({t + 1})} - {f\left( {d,\vartheta} \right)}} \right\rbrack^{T}{\underset{y}{\sum\limits^{{({t + 1})}^{- 1}}}\left\lbrack {\mu_{y}^{({t + 1})} - {f\left( {d,\vartheta} \right)}} \right\rbrack}} + {\left( {\mu_{\vartheta}^{t} - \vartheta} \right)^{- 1}{\underset{y}{\sum\limits^{t^{- 1}}}\left( {\mu_{\vartheta}^{t} - \vartheta} \right)}} + {\left( {\mu_{d}^{t} - d} \right)^{T}{\underset{d}{\sum\limits^{t^{- 1}}}\left( {\mu_{d}^{t} - d} \right)}}}$

FIG. 4 depicts a block diagram of components of the computing device 100within water distribution system 199 of FIG. 1, in accordance with anembodiment of the present invention. It should be appreciated that FIG.4 provides only an illustration of one implementation and does not implyany limitations with regard to the environments in which differentembodiments may be implemented.

Computing device 100 can include one or more processors 402, one or morecomputer-readable RAMs 404, one or more computer-readable ROMs 406, oneor more tangible storage devices 408, device drivers 412, read/writedrive or interface 414, and network adapter or interface 416, allinterconnected over a communications fabric 418. Communications fabric418 can be implemented with any architecture designed for passing dataand/or control information between processors (such as microprocessors,communications and network processors, etc.), system memory, peripheraldevices, and any other hardware components within a system.

One or more operating systems 410, posterior estimation module 200 arestored on one or more of the computer-readable tangible storage devices408 for execution by one or more of the processors 402 via one or moreof the respective RAMs 404 (which typically include cache memory). Inthe illustrated embodiment, each of the computer-readable tangiblestorage devices 408 can be a magnetic disk storage device of an internalhard drive, CD-ROM, DVD, memory stick, magnetic tape, magnetic disk,optical disk, a semiconductor storage device such as RAM, ROM, EPROM,flash memory or any other computer-readable tangible storage device thatcan store a computer program and digital information.

Computing device 100 can also include a R/W drive or interface 414 toread from and write to one or more portable computer-readable tangiblestorage devices 426. Posterior estimation module 200 on computing device100 can be stored on one or more of the portable computer-readabletangible storage devices 426, read via the respective R/W drive orinterface 414 and loaded into the respective computer-readable tangiblestorage device 408.

Computing device 100 can also include a network adapter or interface416, such as a TCP/IP adapter card or wireless communication adapter(such as a 4G wireless communication adapter using OFDMA technology).Posterior estimation module 200 on computing device 100 can bedownloaded to the computing device from an external computer or externalstorage device via a network (for example, the Internet, a local areanetwork or other, wide area network or wireless network) and networkadapter or interface 416. From the network adapter or interface 416, theprograms are loaded into the computer-readable tangible storage device408. The network may comprise copper wires, optical fibers, wirelesstransmission, routers, firewalls, switches, gateway computers and/oredge servers.

Computing device 100 can also include a display screen 420, a keyboardor keypad 422, and a computer mouse or touchpad 424. Device drivers 412interface to display screen 420 for imaging, to keyboard or keypad 422,to computer mouse or touchpad 424, and/or to display screen 420 forpressure sensing of alphanumeric character entry and user selections.The device drivers 412, R/W drive or interface 414 and network adapteror interface 416 can comprise hardware and software (stored incomputer-readable tangible storage device 408 and/or ROM 406).

What is claimed is:
 1. A method for posterior estimation of variables inwater distribution networks, the method comprising: determining, by theone or more processors, a first model of the water distribution networkbased on a set of data inputs from one or more sensors within a waterdistribution system and design parameters, wherein the design parameterscomprise a rating associated with a distribution pump, a design outputpressure associated with the distribution pump, a number of brancheswithin the water distribution system, and a number of branch connectionswithin the water distribution system; determining, by the one or moreprocessors, a second model of the water distribution network based onthe set of data inputs, and the first model; performing, by the one ormore processors, a real-time recursive posterior estimation of the firstmodel, wherein the recursive posterior estimation process continuouslyincreases accuracy of a statistical distribution associated with thefirst model; displaying, by the one or more processors, the recursiveposterior estimation to a user; and causing, by the one or moreprocessors, a user to be notified of a malfunction of a piece ofequipment within the water distribution system.
 2. A method according toclaim 1, wherein the set of data inputs from one or more sensors withina water distribution system comprises: a set of parameters based on thewater distribution system; a statistical distribution of the set ofparameters based on the water distribution system; a set of demandsbased on the water distribution system; and a statistical distributionof the set of demands based on the water distribution system.
 3. Amethod according to claim 2, wherein determining the first model of thewater distribution network is further based on uncertainty information,wherein determining the uncertainty information comprises: calculating,by the one or more processors, uncertainty information, based on thestatistical distribution of the set of parameters based on the waterdistribution system; calculating, by the one or more processors,uncertainty information, based on statistical distribution of the set ofparameters based on the set of demands; receiving, by the one or moreprocessors, a set of first field measurements; and calculating, by theone or more processors, a statistical distribution based on the set offirst field measurements.
 4. A method according to claim 3, furthercomprising: performing, by the one or more processors, a jointoptimization of the set of demands, and the set of parameters based onthe statistical distribution of the set of first field measurements; andcalculating, by the one or more processors, a posterior probabilitybased on the optimized set of demands, the optimized set of parameters,uncertainty information, and the set of first field measurements.
 5. Amethod according to claim 4, wherein calculating the second model of thewater distribution network further comprises: calculating, by the one ormore processors, a distribution of the posterior probability based on aset of second field measurements, the optimized set of demands, and theoptimized set of parameters.
 6. A method according to claim 5, furthercomprising: performing, by the one or more processors, a recursiveposterior estimation of the second model of the water distributionnetwork, wherein the recursive posterior estimation process continuouslyincreases accuracy of the statistical distribution of the set ofdemands, and the set of parameters.
 7. A method according to claim 1,further comprising: causing, by the one or more processors, the user tobe notified of a leak within the water distribution system.
 8. Acomputer program product for posterior estimation of variables in waterdistribution networks, the computer program product comprising: one ormore computer readable non-transitory storage media and programinstructions stored on the one or more computer readable storage media,the program instructions comprising: program instructions to determine,by the one or more processors, a first model of the water distributionnetwork based on a set of data inputs from one or more sensors within awater distribution system and design parameters, wherein the designparameters comprise a rating associated with a distribution pump, adesign output pressure associated with the distribution pump, a numberof branches within the water distribution system, and a number of branchconnections within the water distribution system; program instructionsto determine, by the one or more processors, a second model of the waterdistribution network based on the set of data inputs, and the firstmodel; program instructions to perform, by the one or more processors, areal-time recursive posterior estimation of the first model, wherein therecursive posterior estimation process continuously increases accuracyof a statistical distribution associated with the first model; programinstructions to display, by the one or more processors, the recursiveposterior estimation to a user; and program instructions to cause, bythe one or more processors, a user to be notified of a malfunction of apiece of equipment within the water distribution system.
 9. A computerprogram product according to claim 8, wherein the set of data inputsfrom one or more sensors within a water distribution system comprises: aset of parameters based on the water distribution system; a statisticaldistribution of the set of parameters based on the water distributionsystem; a set of demands based on the water distribution system; and astatistical distribution of the set of demands based on the waterdistribution system.
 10. A computer program product according to claim9, wherein the program instructions to determine the first model of thewater distribution network is further based on uncertainty information,wherein determining the uncertainty information comprises: programinstructions to calculate, by the one or more processors, uncertaintyinformation, based on the statistical distribution of the set ofparameters based on the water distribution system; program instructionsto calculate, by the one or more processors, uncertainty information,based on statistical distribution of the set of parameters based on theset of demands; program instructions to receive, by the one or moreprocessors, a set of first field measurements; and program instructionsto calculate, by the one or more processors, a statistical distributionbased on the set of first field measurements.
 11. A computer programproduct according to claim 10, further comprising: program instructionsto perform, by the one or more processors, a joint optimization of theset of demands, and the set of parameters based on the statisticaldistribution of the set of first field measurements; and programinstructions to calculate, by the one or more processors, a posteriorprobability based on the optimized set of demands, the optimized set ofparameters, uncertainty information, and the set of first fieldmeasurements.
 12. A computer program product according to claim 11,wherein calculating the second model of the water distribution networkfurther comprises: program instructions to calculate, by the one or moreprocessors, a distribution of the posterior probability based on a setof second field measurements, the optimized set of demands, and theoptimized set of parameters.
 13. A computer program product according toclaim 12, further comprising: program instructions to perform, by theone or more processors, a recursive posterior estimation of the secondmodel of the water distribution network, wherein the recursive posteriorestimation process continuously increases accuracy of the statisticaldistribution of the set of demands, and the set of parameters.
 14. Acomputer program product according to claim 8, further comprising:program instructions to cause, by the one or more processors, the userto be notified of a leak within the water distribution system.
 15. Acomputer system for posterior estimation of variables in waterdistribution networks, the computer system comprising: one or morecomputer processors; one or more non-transitory computer readablestorage media; and program instructions stored on the computer readablestorage media for execution by at least one of the one or moreprocessors, the program instructions comprising: program instructions todetermine, by the one or more processors, a first model of the waterdistribution network based on a set of data inputs from one or moresensors within a water distribution system and design parameters,wherein the design parameters comprise a rating associated with adistribution pump, a design output pressure associated with thedistribution pump, a number of branches within the water distributionsystem, and a number of branch connections within the water distributionsystem; program instructions to determine, by the one or moreprocessors, a second model of the water distribution network based onthe set of data inputs, and the first model; program instructions toperform, by the one or more processors, a real-time recursive posteriorestimation of the first model, wherein the recursive posteriorestimation process continuously increases accuracy of a statisticaldistribution associated with the first model; program instructions todisplay, by the one or more processors, the recursive posteriorestimation to a user; and program instructions to cause, by the one ormore processors, a user to be notified of a malfunction of a piece ofequipment within the water distribution system.
 16. A computer systemaccording to claim 15, wherein the set of data inputs from one or moresensors within a water distribution system comprises: a set ofparameters based on the water distribution system; a statisticaldistribution of the set of parameters based on the water distributionsystem; a set of demands based on the water distribution system; and astatistical distribution of the set of demands based on the waterdistribution system.
 17. A computer system according to claim 16,wherein the program instructions to determine the first model of thewater distribution network is further based on uncertainty information,wherein determining the uncertainty information comprises: programinstructions to calculate, by the one or more processors, uncertaintyinformation, based on the statistical distribution of the set ofparameters based on the water distribution system; program instructionsto calculate, by the one or more processors, uncertainty information,based on statistical distribution of the set of parameters based on theset of demands; program instructions to receive, by the one or moreprocessors, a set of first field measurements; and program instructionsto calculate, by the one or more processors, a statistical distributionbased on the set of first field measurements.
 18. A computer systemaccording to claim 17, further comprising: program instructions toperform, by the one or more processors, a joint optimization of the setof demands, and the set of parameters based on the statisticaldistribution of the set of first field measurements; and programinstructions to calculate, by the one or more processors, a posteriorprobability based on the optimized set of demands, the optimized set ofparameters, uncertainty information, and the set of first fieldmeasurements.
 19. A computer system according to claim 18, whereincalculating the second model of the water distribution network furthercomprises: program instructions to calculate, by the one or moreprocessors, a distribution of the posterior probability based on a setof second field measurements, the optimized set of demands, and theoptimized set of parameters.
 20. A computer system according to claim19, further comprising: program instructions to perform, by the one ormore processors, a recursive posterior estimation of the second model ofthe water distribution network, wherein the recursive posteriorestimation process continuously increases accuracy of the statisticaldistribution of the set of demands, and the set of parameters.